Hurricane update - 16 September

In the Atlantic, Gordon and Helene are spinning well offshore, and not presenting a danger to land. Gordon will be absorbed by an Atlantic front on Tuesday and give Spain, Portugal, France and the southern UK a lot of rain and wind.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Lane is currently moving into the Gulf of California, and presenting forecasters with a major headache. It is not certain which course it will take, but they think a landfall near Culiacan is the most likely outcome. This means the hurricane will dump a lot of rain on the mountains (25 inches / 625 mm) and dissipate inland. At the moment, Lane carries winds of 105 knots; if it stays offshore, this might increase.

For those with contacts in northwestern Mexico, I will copy the latest advisories from the hurricane center:

A hurricane warning remains in effect for:
* the Pacific coast of Mexico from El Roblito to Altata
* for southern Baja California south of Agua Blanca (West coast) and south of Buena Vista (East coast).
* for the Islas Marias
Hurricane conditions are likely in these areas within 24 hours, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion

A hurricane watch remains in effect for
* the Pacific coast of Mexico north of Altata to Huatabampito
* the east coast of Baja California north of Buena Vista to Loreto
Hurricane conditions are possible within these areas within 36 hours

A tropical storm warning is in effect for
* The Pacific coast of Mexico from Altata to Huatabampito
Tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours

A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch remain in effect along the Pacific coast of Mexico south of El Roblito to Cabo Corrientes.

Lane is moving north-northwest at 10 mph, and is expected to make landfall within the hurricane warning area within 12 hours (that is, before 2pm PDT). Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts. Lane is now a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale and some additional strengthening is possible, prior to making landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the centre, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. Estimated central pressure is 960 mbar or 28.35 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 6 feet above normal tide levels, accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in areas of onshore flow near the path of the centre of hurricane Lane.

Total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches [150 to 300 mm] are possible along the west-central coast of Mexico and over the southern Baja California peninsula along the track of Lane. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 to 25 inches [375 to 625 mm] are possible over the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico. These rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flashfloods and mudslides.