The weatherforecasters have got severe problems predicting the future track of Typhoon Cimaron. As I reported over the weekend, this typhoon slammed into the north Philippine island of Luzon. The system is now over the South China Sea. This morning, the Joint Typhoon Hurricane Centre gave out a text prediction, saying the system would go towards Vietnam, but the graphic (a map) showed the storm heading towards Hong Kong.
I can't really bake bread out of this whole mess, but as Cimaron is still packing winds of 85 knots, I think a two-pronged warning is in order. On the strength of warning #20 -
On Thursday, Hong Kong could be visited by Cimaron, with winds of 80 knots, that is 90 mph. The centre of the storm will pass within 30 miles of the city, i.e. hurricane force winds are likely.
alternatively
Central Vietnam could be visited by Cimaron on Thursday or Friday, with winds of 80 knots / 90 mph, in the vicinity of the city of Hue.
The bottom line is of course: monitor forecasts VERY CLOSELY.
JTWC website: http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.html
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