Friday notes

What with all the excitement going on in the Indian Ocean, I'm glad it's a quiet if wettish day up here in the islands. No major improvements expected either.

My Tropical Cyclones blog has enjoyed an unprecendented surge of interest. Up to the moment of this post, I've had 170 visitors, mainly from Africa, but a sizeable number from Mauritius. As I said a day or so ago, I hope that I've helped in some small way. If you go and have a look, you'll see that I try to keep things simple - the official cyclone bulletins can be very technical.

The Hurricane Centre on La Reunion has issued this bulletin, which I'd like to relay - translated into English.

The southwestern Indian Ocean is the scene of heightened tropical activity, with no fewer than three cyclones, not counting the showery zone off the southeastern coast of Madagascar. Although the presence of 3 cyclones at the same time is not unusual, it is not a frequent event. The last time that this occurred was in February 2003, when Gerry, Hape and Isha were around at the same time.

Of the 3 cyclones currently present (Favio, Gamede and Humba, far to the east) Favio has now moved inland in Mozambique, in a sequence of events that reminds us of the cyclonic season 2002/3 with Japhet. This cyclone made landfall roughly in the same area as Favio, to wit north of the city of Vilanculos. Favio remained near the coast longer than Japhet and at a higher intensity; it has swept the coast for more than 65 miles, including the tourism zone of Bazaruto Island and nearby areas. Favio is now moving inland rapidly but is still a cause for concern, as it will swell the already flooded Zambezi basin. Over the last few weeks, more than 100,000 people had to be evacuated.

The last intense tropical cyclone to hit Mozambique was Eline in 2000, which has left a sad mark in the country's history. It made landfall a little further noth on - February 22nd. Seven years ago to the day.

The other cyclone which is now the centre of attention is Gamede. It has developed rapidly during yesterday whilst moving rapidly west - covering 370 miles in 24 hours. Gamede was centred some 620 miles northeast of La Reunion yesterday evening. This cyclone has a large circulation and will be approaching Mauritius and La Reunion by the end of the week. Although it is not expected to directly affect the islands, its progress should be monitored closely.