Scottish Elections 2007

This coming Thursday, May 3rd, will see elections to the Scottish Parliament, the third such elections since devolution in 1999. Main contending parties are Labour, Liberal Democrats, Scottish National Party and Conservatives.

The first two formed the out-going Executive, headed up by Labour. The Conservative Party has stated its opposition to going into any coalition. Judging by previous performances, the Tories cannot be expected to gain a working majority.
The LibDems appear to be heading for a similar result as in 2003, and are likely to be the coalition-partner in waiting for whoever gains the upper hand. That battle is going to be between Labour and the SNP.

Labour is heading for a reduction in numbers of votes. In Scotland, there are two reasons for this decline. First is the War in Iraq - UK Prime Minister Tony Blair (Labour) is widely blamed for leading the UK into what is regarded in some quarters as an illegal war. The steadily mounting roll of casualties does not help matters either. Second comes the decision to commence studies into the next-generation of the British nuclear deterrant, named Trident, which is based at Faslane Naval Base, 20 miles west of Glasgow, on the River Clyde.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) appears to be in the ascendancy, and in recent polls seems to come top of the pile, with the largest numbers of votes. It is the SNP's stated objective to gain independence for Scotland. The country merged with England and Wales in 1707 to produce Great Britain. There are quite a few voices in Scotland who hark back to that event, and to the failed Jacobite uprising in 1745 (see my entry on Bonny Prince Charlie, earlier this month) to say that it was all a mistake, and that Scotland should be independent.

Before I go on, I have to make it absolutely crystal clear that I amnot a member of a political party, nor will I say where my preferences lie. It is your, the reader's responsibility, to draw such conclusions.

Independence for Scotland is not going to work, in my perspective. The revenues from the North Sea and North Atlantic oil and gas extraction will not readily be ceded by the British government to an independent Scotland. It's billions you're talking about.

The economic powerbase, as far as I can discern (I'm not an economist), is not strong enough to sustain independence. It should be born in mind that each person in Scotland is subsidised 5 times MORE than each person south of the border.

Harking back to the 18th century for justification is dangerous - I only have to point southwest of Scotland at Northern Ireland where thirty years of de-facto civil war were justified on the grounds of the Battle of the Boyne in 1688.

As resident of Scotland, I also want the best for the country. But I feel that working together with the rest of the UK will reap far greater rewards for all than little old Scotland going it alone on the periphery.