Flossie is now beginning to appear on the Hawaii radar, although it is still 200 miles away. The storm is weakening, but could still pack a punch on the Big Island there.
Meanwhile, across the Pacific, Taiwan is gearing up to its third typhoon: Sepat. A Canadian lady, blogging from there, complains that her fieldtrip will probably be called off. I don't think she'd enjoy her fieldtrip in winds of 100 mph, would you?
Tropical storm Dean has been declared midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, and could turn up there with winds of 110 mph by the weekend. I could not emphasise enough that there are severe discrepancies between the various forecast and there is NO telling which track the storm will take after the next couple of days. There are all sorts of stories flying around at present, such as landfall in places as far apart as:
- Caribbean
- Gulf of Mexico
- Florida
- Mid Atlantic states
- New England
which means a 2,000 mile spread.
In this sort of situation, the only advice is to continue to monitor the forecasts. It is best to wait for the NHC to issue a specific warning.
If you are concerned, ensure you are prepared for the arrival of a hurricane - review your contingency plans.
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TS Dean's path is still to far out to even contemplate where it will make landfall in the U.S landmass. Taking into account at the slow development of Dean due to shear and less than perfect sea temperatures. I have run the NOGAPS model JTWS is using to forecast the movement of this storm and by the end of this week it should be in the Caribbean. Definitely a storm to watch and closer to the Antilles, this storm will move into more favourable water temps (29-30 degrees) and weak shear.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hurricanezone.net/ 04L Dean is located third down with latest model track updates.
Cheers,
Petar
I just saw the news about Flossie....sure hope Dean doesn't materialize into anything big...hope Hawaii, gets just a brush as they predict. Take care...
ReplyDeleteJoyce